Category / Country Forecasts Using Systems Approach to Mundane Vedic Astrology

by Jayant Kalawar

Jyotish Covid-19 Pandemic Model for USA: Update July 12th 2020

Devi Cover for Outsider European Enlightenment Kindle 190506

WIth the Devi’s Blessings. Cover art by Jayant Kalawar 2018.

I posted a tentative Jyotish based model to predict and track the Covid-19 Pandemic in the USA on April 6th 2020. I titled it the memetic pandemic. I wanted to convey that the pandemic that we were experiencing was not only at the biological level of the virus. It was also at the mental level of language – in terms of incessant flow of torrents of information of the disease and its manifestation in deaths around the globe.

I ended that post with the following summary prediction:

So, what I would be looking for is whether the actuals begin to slope downwards as per prediction based on my Jyotish based model, between April 18th and April 25th and then slope downwards even further after between April 25th – May 2nd and accelerate downwards between May 2nd – May 9th. And whether total number of deaths stabilize around April 25th on wards. Let’s see.

Here is a representation of numbers of daily new deaths:

Actual Covid 19 New Deaths Weekly Feb - Jul 2020

 

What I see, in the chart above, is that the number of new deaths (7 day moving average for the United States) did peak somewhere between April 15th and 20th and then began to decline around April 25th 2020. as predicted. And, again on track with the prediction, the numbers began to go down sharply in the week of May 2nd. My model predicted up to May 9th.The model did pretty good in terms of predicting the slopes back in the April – May 2020 time frame. Not too bad for a first time Jyotish based model for a complex phenomenon of Covid 19 pandemic.

For Jyotishis, here is a brief description of how I arrived at the slopes (i.e. change in level of new deaths). I used a combination of 8th Lord (both natal and transit) aspect and 8th House placement on both transit and natal planets. In the case of USA SAMVA chart[1], the 8th Lord is Saturn and the 8th House is Aquarius, along with natal and transit Rahu / Ketu aspect on natal and transit planets.

Symbolically the function may be represented as:

Change in Level of New Deaths = f(f(8th L (NandTr), X), f(8th H, X), f(Ra/Ke(NandTr), X))

Where L=Lord, Tr=Transit, H=House, N=natal, Tr=Transit, X=any planet Mars, Moon, Sun, Sun, Mercury, Venus, Jupiter, Saturn.

The potential for change in level of new deaths is measured in degrees of separation of planet X from the 8th and / or Rahu / Ketu.

My sense is that I have been able to at least directionally predict a complex biological-social phenomenon in the USA, which epidemiologists and other experts have been trying to get their arms around. With such a directional prediction, I was able to say to myself and my family and friends that with proper safety precautions the pandemic is likely to decrease in its lethality by mid-May. This helped in managing down the level of anxiety and therefore have better sense of hope and well-being. I am also somewhat more encouraged now that there is potential to use Jyotish based models to predict large scale complex social phenomena. Of course, there will have to be many, many trial and error iterations before the Jyotish approach of large scale social phenomena begins to be helpful in designing prevention and mitigation strategies as appropriate.

But then what about predictions for after mid-May 2020? After all, the pandemic phenomena is still continuing as I write this on July 7th 2020.

Well, I extended my prediction on April 22nd to cover the time period between mid-May and late July by saying:

There is a chance that there may be a mild second wave of Wuhan Virus in USA during this period of mid May 2020 to end July 2020, which may be seen as a continuance of the current wave. The indicators point to more of a chance of potential for civil and political disharmony and economic hardship in USA in May and June 2020, but that is from a different set of planetary drivers, which I may cover in a separate post (in this post I am focusing on the pandemic concerns).

As you would notice, the prediction of civil and political disharmony and economic hardship in USA in the May – June 2020 time frame was quite accurate (beginning with protests after the death in police custody of George Floyd on May 25th 2020 and peaking out in the second half of June).

Before I go on to give you my predictions for USA for rest of 2020, there is one key point I would like to make – why did I title my first post on this Covid 19 pandemic, as a memetic pandemic? : the above model representation focuses on predicting sickness (driven by 6th H and 6th L Jupiter) and death (driven by 8th H and 8th L Saturn). How the information about such sickness and death (and also communal disharmony – affliction of 4th H and 4th L Venus), I governed by strength of 3rd H and 3rd L Mercury.

So, I was pointing to how memetic pandemics overlay biological pandemics: when tr Mercury was transiting through 8th H from January 30th to April 7th (and then from April 7th to May 8th through its debilitation sign in Pisces followed by  Aries afflicted by tr Ketu and natal Rahu), the media (both main stream and social) were continually channeling information about deaths from Covid-19. Then there was a very brief respite between May 8th and May 24th, when there was at least some neutral to positive news as Mercury transited through Taurus pretty strong and without affliction. Then on May 25th it transited into the 12th H of the USA SAMVA chart (Gemini) and its been there since, as of this writing in the first half of July. The media began reporting potential for losses, which is the hallmark of 12th H. It has kept stressing how new cases of Covid-19 are rising. But it did not convert to either hospitals being filled up, nor to sharp increases in deaths, which are to be expected as new cases rise (according to expert epidemiologists). I was able to confidently predict that this would not be so, that there may be a sense of a mild extension of the first wave up to the end of July. Hospitals did not fill up as tr Jupiter was no longer afflicted by Saturn since second week of May and moved back into its safe house Sagittarius in early July. Deaths did not rise because tr Saturn was no longer afflicted nor afflicting tr Jupiter or any other tr / natal planet or houses in the USA SAMVA chart. This has again helped me and my family and friends to manage anxieties down and have more of a sense of control. Learning and practicing the Systems Approach to Vedic Astrology (SATVA) over the last 14 years or so has really begun to pay off.  I would encourage more and more folks to invest time and effort to learn and practice SATVA[2].

Well, if you have read through here and you reading this in July 2020, this may find this useful for you to navigate the next 6 to 8 months.

So here are my predictions for the rest of 2020:

US economy will see an upswing from July to early November (tr Jupiter in its own house Sagittarius).

The political and community scene in the US will be divisive (which may as may be expected in an election year 2020) between mid-July and early November (tr Jupiter aspects natal Venus).

From November 5th 2020 to early February 2021 there may be rise in sickness / deaths and intensity of civil and economic disharmony, as tr Jupiter and tr Saturn come into close conjunction, while the nodal axis stations at approximately 26 deg in exaltation in Taurus and Scorpio.

So, that’s it for now. Stay safe, enjoy and take care.

[1] https://cosmologer.blogspot.com/2007/12/samva-usa-chart.html

[2] http://yournetastrologer.com/difference.htm

by Jayant Kalawar

3 Waves of Spanish Flu of 1918-1919: Can we expect a repeat now? A Jyotish Perspective

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The Destroyer of Ignorance and Confusion – Aum Namo KAlarAtreya NamAhA (Source: Wikipedia, Devi Kalratri, Sanghasri, Kalighat, Kolkata, 2010)

Background to this post

As I was observing how actuals for the current (April 2020) Wuhan Virus pandemic in USA were tracking quite well to the slope (not the levels) in the graphics produced by my Jyotish based model (posted on April 6th), I received a suggestion[i] that it may be helpful to assess what Jyotish factors drove the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 – 1919 in USA.

So in this post I am looking at how the planetary patterns played out in the three waves of the 1918-1919 pandemic in USA. I then compare the 1918-1919 planetary patterns to the planetary patterns that will be in play between now and summer of 2021, using the Systems Approach to Mundane Vedic Astrology[ii]. The conclusion, which you can read in more detail towards the end, is that there appears to be a potential for two waves of the Wuhan Virus to arise in the USA:

Jyotish indicators show that there is some potential for what may be a mild second wave of Wuhan Virus in USA during mid May 2020 to end July 2020. This second wave may be seen as a continuance of the current wave (as I write this in mid-April 2020). There is more of a potential for civil and political disharmony and economic hardship in USA in May and June 2020, but that is from a different set of planetary drivers, which I may cover in a separate post (in this post I am focusing on the pandemic concerns).

There are indications of a third wave of Wuhan Virus arising between mid-October 2020 and February 2021, with a peak in December 2020 (which happens to coincide with the typical seasonal flu period in USA, beginning with spread of contagion from the Thanksgiving Holiday, through to Christmas Holidays and the New Year). My analysis based on Systems Approach Jyotish indicates that if at all such a third Wuhan Virus pandemic wave arises in the Fall of 2020, it will not be anywhere near the severity of the devastating wave of the Fall of 1918 pandemic.

Many of you may find it helpful to use these broad predictions (with probabilities) to develop scenarios for your business and your personal lives. Keep in mind that even these threatening scenarios can be made into opportunities if applied keeping individual business and personal specifics in context and with safety in mind.

You can read more about the Spanish Flu Pandemic in USA of 1918-1919 in this article by the Center for Disease Control (USA)[iii]. I will focus on the three waves of the deadly pandemic in Spring of 1918, Fall of 1918 and Spring of 1919.

Pandemic of 1918 Three Waves

So in order to develop a meaningful understanding of the planetary patterns for the 1918 – 1919 pandemic in USA, I begin with noticing the following in the USA SAMVA 20 degree Cancer rising chart[iv]:

For 1918-1919 the USA chart shows a Rahu major period with a Rahu sub-period covering all three waves. Rahu is the north node created by intersection of the Moon with the Sun. The disturbed energy pattern created by the Moon-Sun intersections become fertile space-time areas for disease and deception.

Now let’s look at the transit configurations of:

  1. Where the nodal axis (Rahu / Ketu) was stationed during each of the three 19189-1919 pandemic waves.
  2. Where Jupiter, the ruler of the 6th House in the USA chart and which has potential to trigger disease, was transiting during each of these three waves of 1918-1919.
  3. Where Saturn, the rules of the 8th House in the USA chart and which has the potential to trigger death and death like experiences and raise obstructions to attempts towards resolution, was transitioning during each of these three pandemic waves.

First Pandemic Wave (Spring 1918) Transit Positions:

  1. Rahu was stationed at 29 deg in Scorpio, weak and debilitated in the 5th House of the USA chart, while Ketu was stationed at 29 deg in Taurus, debilitated in in the 11th House of the USA chart.
  2. Jupiter, the disease trigger for USA chart was transiting over tr Ketu at that time. It was not stationed over it. Nor was it impacting any of the critical points in the chart. It did trigger disease, but at a relatively low level in the first wave.
  3. Saturn, the giver of death and death like experiences in the USA chart (Saturn can be a positive force in most charts for most of the time. In the USA chart it has this negative potential as well) was stationing at near the ascendant point of the chart, in Cancer, during this time and impacted 7th house of faraway lands as well. It gave death like experiences not only due to the disease at home (1st house), but also in far away lands (WW 1 had ended, but death like experiences were continuing among those who had not yet returned back to USA at this time).

Second Pandemic Wave (Fall 1918) Positions:

  1. Rahu at 20 degrees Scorpio, debilitated and stationed on the most effective point and afflicting the Ascendant point with its 9th Ketu at 20 degrees Taurus, debilitated, stationed on the most effective point of 11th house.
  2. Jupiter at 20 deg Gemini, stationed on the most effective point of 12th House and afflicting most effective points of 4th, 6th and 8th
  3. Saturn at 5 degrees Leo, 2nd House, but not afflicting.

The combination of prolonged affliction of debilitated Rahu-Ketu to the ascendant and of Jupiter from 12th House of separation afflicting 6th House, may have triggered this deadliest of the three waves in the Spanish Flu pandemic.

Third Pandemic Wave (Summer 1919) Positions:

  1. Rahu at 11 degrees Scorpio, debilitated and stationed but not afflicting. Ketu at 11 degrees Taurus, debilitated and stationed but not afflicting.
  2. Jupiter was afflicted by 9th aspect of natal Ketu at 16 degrees in Gemini much of April and May.
  3. Saturn was afflicted by 10th aspect of natal Saturn at 26 degrees in Leo in the April – May time frame.

All three afflictions during the summer of 1919 were relatively mild. The relatively lower number of cases and deaths in the third wave reflect that.

My main take away from review of the three 1918 – 1919 Spanish Flu pandemic waves, through a Systems Approach Jyotish lens, is that combinations of direct affliction of and by the nodes and 6th and 8th rulers (in the case of the USA chart, Jupiter and Saturn) during a Rahu major / Rahu sub-period (the amplification by Rahu of the negativity introduced by the influenza virus played a major role back in 1918-1919 pandemic) and stationing of debilitated Rahu-Ketu, led to the immense death laden 2nd wave in the Fall of 1918, which took about half a million human lives in the USA in a few months.

So what does that mean for the Wuhan Virus Pandemic USA in 2020 – 2021?

Will there be repeat waves of Wuhan virus pandemic? Yes, I do see (from a Jyotish lens perspective) the potential for this to happen.

Will such repeat waves be substantially deadlier than the pandemic wave we are experiencing right now in April 2020? No, I do not see that to be so.

Here is why.

First, we note the major and sub-period in the SAMVA USA chart in the 2020-2021 period:

January 26th 2020 to November 30th 2020: Sun major period with Mercury sub-period. Both Sun and Mercury ensure positive benefits to the USA. Mercury plays a role in bringing communities together in mitigating negativities, including viruses.

December 1st 2020 to April 6th 2021: Sun major period with Ketu sub-period. This Ketu sub-period, channeling the disturbed energy of the intersection of the Moon with the Sun, could potentially provide the space-time area for a second wave of Wuhan Virus infection in the USA.

April 7th 2021 to April 8th 2022: Sun major period with Venus sub-period. Venus, along with Sun, provides positive benefits for the USA. A post-pandemic coming together of America (signified by Venus as fourth House ruler and also generally as signifier of prosperity), may be expected in this period.

To assess what chances there are for future waves of Wuhan Virus pandemic in 2020 – 2021, we will examine the next three Rahu-Ketu stations between now (April 2020) and the summer of 2021.

First Rahu-Ketu stationing from mid May 2020 to July 31st 2020

Rahu stationing at 5 degrees in 12th House Gemini and Ketu at 5 degrees in 6th House Sagittarius. However they are not applying any prolonged affliction during this period. Saturn and Jupiter are in 7th House Capricorn mildly afflicting each other from a distance of over 3 degrees. There is a chance that there may be a mild second wave of Wuhan Virus in USA during this period of mid May 2020 to end July 2020, which may be seen as a continuance of the current wave. The indicators point to more of a chance of potential for civil and political disharmony and economic hardship in USA in May and June 2020, but that is from a different set of planetary drivers, which I may cover in a separate post (in this post I am focusing on the pandemic concerns).

Second, is the Rahu-Ketu Stationing mid October 2020 to January 31st 2021

Exalted Rahu will station at 25 degrees in 11th House Scorpio. Exalted Ketu will station at 25 degrees 5th House Taurus. They will be directly afflicting and be afflicted by natal Saturn (death like experiences) at 26 deg 11th House Scorpio.

At the same time debilitated transit Jupiter and transit Saturn will be conjunct in 7th House Capricorn for all of December 2020. This conjunction will play out when the Ketu sub-period is the driver in the SAMVA USA chart from December 1st 2020 to April 7th 2021. IF at all there is a second wave of the Wuhan Virus pandemic, it is likely to begin somewhere in USA in the second half of October, will peak in December 2020 and then recede at the beginning of February 2021. The impact of this second wave, while it has the potential of being somewhat more than the first wave in USA in the February to May 2020 time frame, is not likely to be anywhere near the second wave of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic.

This time the major period driver is the Sun, which protects and blesses the USA chart (the major period driver was the malefic Rahu a 102 years ago). Also, this Rahu-Ketu in transit in 2020-2021 are exalted and therefore give relatively fewer negative results, compared to the debilitated Rahu-Ketu stationing of 102 years ago. Both these factors (of Sun major period and the exalted Rahu-Ketu transit) will provide cover in the Mid October 2020- February 2021 period, even though the Ketu sub-period may play the negative catalyst role for spread of disease and of death during this period.

Perhaps one way of minimizing the impact, of even a relatively (compared to 102 years ago) weak second pandemic wave in USA in the Mid October 2020 – February 2021 period, is to practice social distance and wear masks and wash hands frequently, which many of us in the USA may have done effectively from March 2020 onwards.

The third transit Rahu-Ketu station to notice is the one occurring at 16 degrees of Taurus, between April 2021 and June 2022. This station is happening in the Sun / Venus positive period of the USA chart. During this period, the 6th house ruler Jupiter (of disease and debt) will be in the 8th house, Aquarius (between 2 deg and 8 deg), but not afflicting nor being afflicted. At the same time, 8th house ruler transit Saturn (of death like experiences and obstructions in this case) is stationing at 19 deg Capricorn (7th house). It will afflict 7th, 9th, 1st and 4th houses of the USA chart. My take away from these configuration is that while there is not a likelihood of the 3rd wave of Wuhan Virus pandemic, there may likely be some negative experiences, including violence leading to injury and deaths of Americans in distant lands (7th house), at Colleges (9th house) and domestically across communities (1st and 4th houses).

Conclusion

When looking through a Jyotish lens I see potential for a mild wave (which may be seen as a continuance of the current wave (as of April 2020)) of the Wuhan Virus pandemic in USA until the end of June 2020. There is somewhat higher potential for a second wave in the Fall of 2020, with peak in December 2020, which may extend into February 2021. These broad predictions may be useful for many of you as you do your scenario planning of your specifics in your business and individual lives. Such an exercise may uncover ways in which to minimize loss and find ways of continuing to do business in a different and safe way.

I may post separately on what the economic scenarios look like for USA from a Jyotish lens in 2020-2021.

[i] Suggestion was made by the master astrologer who goes by the name of Cosmologer, whose mastery of Systems Approach to Mundane Vedic Astrology, especially as it applies to nation-states, is legendary among practicing astrologers. You can access his writings at http://cosmologer.blogspot.com/

 

[ii] See the Mundane Astrology site http://yournetastrologer.com/mundane_astrology.htm as propounded by the Late Professor V.K. Chaudhary and now being practiced by eminent astrologers Mr. Rajesh Chaudhary and Cosmologer.

[iii] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/three-waves.htm

 

[iv] http://cosmologer.blogspot.com/2007/12/samva-usa-chart.html

 

by Jayant Kalawar

Wuhan Virus USA: Jyotish Model Prediction Update April 17th

Devi Waiting for Her Children (c) Jayant Kalawar 180929

The Devi Waiting For Her Children (c) Jayant Kalawar 2019

 

By Jayant Kalawar, April 17th 2020

Positive memes have started surfacing in USA, as seen in these news items on April 16th, 2020, which I predicted in early April 2020.

In my post of April 6th I had predicted the following:

From April 8th to April 25th, Mercury transits Pisces, the 9th house of good fortune and openness to direction from advanced research. We may likely see a different set of memes arise in this period. They are, however, likely to be over all weakly positive (and especially so up to August 14th): the memes in this period will likely begin giving information about how the pandemic is being mitigated and calling to action and getting back to work.

Mercury enters Aries on April 26th 2020. It will be able to manifest positive memes especially up to May 6th. Memes calling for action to get the economy moving may get stronger in this period.

Here are two news items that surfaced in this context on April 16th, which are aligned with the above predictions:

  1. Call to action and getting back to work

Trump unveils phased approach to reopening economy

https://apnews.com/420a38ec14101eab70e07be367ee6422

  1. Direction from advanced research

Early peek at data on Gilead coronavirus drug suggests patients are responding to treatment.

The potential of Systems Approach to Vedic Astrology to play a role in planning our lives has not been tapped. There is quite a bit of research that needs to be done to make this happen, to make the heuristics developed by ancient Rishis adapt to the 21st century to make them relevant and practical. One way is to incorporate the Jyotish factor into modeling, which is what I have done here and therefore test whether and how it helps us all to navigate uncertainty in life a little bit better.

Of course, the main question on everyone’s mind right now, as I write this on April 17th, is what direction Covid-19 epidemic take, in terms of new cases and new deaths. You will see my prediction in the linked post (at the top of this post) which speaks of leveling of new cases after August 18th and leveling of new deaths somewhere between April 25th and May 6th. A new planetary configuration opens up from May 5th on wards, as Mars moves into Aquarius and Venus slows down and stations itself in late Taurus. I hope to contemplate and write about that soon in a separate post.