3 Waves of Spanish Flu of 1918-1919: Can we expect a repeat now? A Jyotish Perspective

Devi Kalaratri source Wikipedia 180808

The Destroyer of Ignorance and Confusion – Aum Namo KAlarAtreya NamAhA (Source: Wikipedia, Devi Kalratri, Sanghasri, Kalighat, Kolkata, 2010)

Background to this post

As I was observing how actuals for the current (April 2020) Wuhan Virus pandemic in USA were tracking quite well to the slope (not the levels) in the graphics produced by my Jyotish based model (posted on April 6th), I received a suggestion[i] that it may be helpful to assess what Jyotish factors drove the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 – 1919 in USA.

So in this post I am looking at how the planetary patterns played out in the three waves of the 1918-1919 pandemic in USA. I then compare the 1918-1919 planetary patterns to the planetary patterns that will be in play between now and summer of 2021, using the Systems Approach to Mundane Vedic Astrology[ii]. The conclusion, which you can read in more detail towards the end, is that there appears to be a potential for two waves of the Wuhan Virus to arise in the USA:

Jyotish indicators show that there is some potential for what may be a mild second wave of Wuhan Virus in USA during mid May 2020 to end July 2020. This second wave may be seen as a continuance of the current wave (as I write this in mid-April 2020). There is more of a potential for civil and political disharmony and economic hardship in USA in May and June 2020, but that is from a different set of planetary drivers, which I may cover in a separate post (in this post I am focusing on the pandemic concerns).

There are indications of a third wave of Wuhan Virus arising between mid-October 2020 and February 2021, with a peak in December 2020 (which happens to coincide with the typical seasonal flu period in USA, beginning with spread of contagion from the Thanksgiving Holiday, through to Christmas Holidays and the New Year). My analysis based on Systems Approach Jyotish indicates that if at all such a third Wuhan Virus pandemic wave arises in the Fall of 2020, it will not be anywhere near the severity of the devastating wave of the Fall of 1918 pandemic.

Many of you may find it helpful to use these broad predictions (with probabilities) to develop scenarios for your business and your personal lives. Keep in mind that even these threatening scenarios can be made into opportunities if applied keeping individual business and personal specifics in context and with safety in mind.

You can read more about the Spanish Flu Pandemic in USA of 1918-1919 in this article by the Center for Disease Control (USA)[iii]. I will focus on the three waves of the deadly pandemic in Spring of 1918, Fall of 1918 and Spring of 1919.

Pandemic of 1918 Three Waves

So in order to develop a meaningful understanding of the planetary patterns for the 1918 – 1919 pandemic in USA, I begin with noticing the following in the USA SAMVA 20 degree Cancer rising chart[iv]:

For 1918-1919 the USA chart shows a Rahu major period with a Rahu sub-period covering all three waves. Rahu is the north node created by intersection of the Moon with the Sun. The disturbed energy pattern created by the Moon-Sun intersections become fertile space-time areas for disease and deception.

Now let’s look at the transit configurations of:

  1. Where the nodal axis (Rahu / Ketu) was stationed during each of the three 19189-1919 pandemic waves.
  2. Where Jupiter, the ruler of the 6th House in the USA chart and which has potential to trigger disease, was transiting during each of these three waves of 1918-1919.
  3. Where Saturn, the rules of the 8th House in the USA chart and which has the potential to trigger death and death like experiences and raise obstructions to attempts towards resolution, was transitioning during each of these three pandemic waves.

First Pandemic Wave (Spring 1918) Transit Positions:

  1. Rahu was stationed at 29 deg in Scorpio, weak and debilitated in the 5th House of the USA chart, while Ketu was stationed at 29 deg in Taurus, debilitated in in the 11th House of the USA chart.
  2. Jupiter, the disease trigger for USA chart was transiting over tr Ketu at that time. It was not stationed over it. Nor was it impacting any of the critical points in the chart. It did trigger disease, but at a relatively low level in the first wave.
  3. Saturn, the giver of death and death like experiences in the USA chart (Saturn can be a positive force in most charts for most of the time. In the USA chart it has this negative potential as well) was stationing at near the ascendant point of the chart, in Cancer, during this time and impacted 7th house of faraway lands as well. It gave death like experiences not only due to the disease at home (1st house), but also in far away lands (WW 1 had ended, but death like experiences were continuing among those who had not yet returned back to USA at this time).

Second Pandemic Wave (Fall 1918) Positions:

  1. Rahu at 20 degrees Scorpio, debilitated and stationed on the most effective point and afflicting the Ascendant point with its 9th Ketu at 20 degrees Taurus, debilitated, stationed on the most effective point of 11th house.
  2. Jupiter at 20 deg Gemini, stationed on the most effective point of 12th House and afflicting most effective points of 4th, 6th and 8th
  3. Saturn at 5 degrees Leo, 2nd House, but not afflicting.

The combination of prolonged affliction of debilitated Rahu-Ketu to the ascendant and of Jupiter from 12th House of separation afflicting 6th House, may have triggered this deadliest of the three waves in the Spanish Flu pandemic.

Third Pandemic Wave (Summer 1919) Positions:

  1. Rahu at 11 degrees Scorpio, debilitated and stationed but not afflicting. Ketu at 11 degrees Taurus, debilitated and stationed but not afflicting.
  2. Jupiter was afflicted by 9th aspect of natal Ketu at 16 degrees in Gemini much of April and May.
  3. Saturn was afflicted by 10th aspect of natal Saturn at 26 degrees in Leo in the April – May time frame.

All three afflictions during the summer of 1919 were relatively mild. The relatively lower number of cases and deaths in the third wave reflect that.

My main take away from review of the three 1918 – 1919 Spanish Flu pandemic waves, through a Systems Approach Jyotish lens, is that combinations of direct affliction of and by the nodes and 6th and 8th rulers (in the case of the USA chart, Jupiter and Saturn) during a Rahu major / Rahu sub-period (the amplification by Rahu of the negativity introduced by the influenza virus played a major role back in 1918-1919 pandemic) and stationing of debilitated Rahu-Ketu, led to the immense death laden 2nd wave in the Fall of 1918, which took about half a million human lives in the USA in a few months.

So what does that mean for the Wuhan Virus Pandemic USA in 2020 – 2021?

Will there be repeat waves of Wuhan virus pandemic? Yes, I do see (from a Jyotish lens perspective) the potential for this to happen.

Will such repeat waves be substantially deadlier than the pandemic wave we are experiencing right now in April 2020? No, I do not see that to be so.

Here is why.

First, we note the major and sub-period in the SAMVA USA chart in the 2020-2021 period:

January 26th 2020 to November 30th 2020: Sun major period with Mercury sub-period. Both Sun and Mercury ensure positive benefits to the USA. Mercury plays a role in bringing communities together in mitigating negativities, including viruses.

December 1st 2020 to April 6th 2021: Sun major period with Ketu sub-period. This Ketu sub-period, channeling the disturbed energy of the intersection of the Moon with the Sun, could potentially provide the space-time area for a second wave of Wuhan Virus infection in the USA.

April 7th 2021 to April 8th 2022: Sun major period with Venus sub-period. Venus, along with Sun, provides positive benefits for the USA. A post-pandemic coming together of America (signified by Venus as fourth House ruler and also generally as signifier of prosperity), may be expected in this period.

To assess what chances there are for future waves of Wuhan Virus pandemic in 2020 – 2021, we will examine the next three Rahu-Ketu stations between now (April 2020) and the summer of 2021.

First Rahu-Ketu stationing from mid May 2020 to July 31st 2020

Rahu stationing at 5 degrees in 12th House Gemini and Ketu at 5 degrees in 6th House Sagittarius. However they are not applying any prolonged affliction during this period. Saturn and Jupiter are in 7th House Capricorn mildly afflicting each other from a distance of over 3 degrees. There is a chance that there may be a mild second wave of Wuhan Virus in USA during this period of mid May 2020 to end July 2020, which may be seen as a continuance of the current wave. The indicators point to more of a chance of potential for civil and political disharmony and economic hardship in USA in May and June 2020, but that is from a different set of planetary drivers, which I may cover in a separate post (in this post I am focusing on the pandemic concerns).

Second, is the Rahu-Ketu Stationing mid October 2020 to January 31st 2021

Exalted Rahu will station at 25 degrees in 11th House Scorpio. Exalted Ketu will station at 25 degrees 5th House Taurus. They will be directly afflicting and be afflicted by natal Saturn (death like experiences) at 26 deg 11th House Scorpio.

At the same time debilitated transit Jupiter and transit Saturn will be conjunct in 7th House Capricorn for all of December 2020. This conjunction will play out when the Ketu sub-period is the driver in the SAMVA USA chart from December 1st 2020 to April 7th 2021. IF at all there is a second wave of the Wuhan Virus pandemic, it is likely to begin somewhere in USA in the second half of October, will peak in December 2020 and then recede at the beginning of February 2021. The impact of this second wave, while it has the potential of being somewhat more than the first wave in USA in the February to May 2020 time frame, is not likely to be anywhere near the second wave of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic.

This time the major period driver is the Sun, which protects and blesses the USA chart (the major period driver was the malefic Rahu a 102 years ago). Also, this Rahu-Ketu in transit in 2020-2021 are exalted and therefore give relatively fewer negative results, compared to the debilitated Rahu-Ketu stationing of 102 years ago. Both these factors (of Sun major period and the exalted Rahu-Ketu transit) will provide cover in the Mid October 2020- February 2021 period, even though the Ketu sub-period may play the negative catalyst role for spread of disease and of death during this period.

Perhaps one way of minimizing the impact, of even a relatively (compared to 102 years ago) weak second pandemic wave in USA in the Mid October 2020 – February 2021 period, is to practice social distance and wear masks and wash hands frequently, which many of us in the USA may have done effectively from March 2020 onwards.

The third transit Rahu-Ketu station to notice is the one occurring at 16 degrees of Taurus, between April 2021 and June 2022. This station is happening in the Sun / Venus positive period of the USA chart. During this period, the 6th house ruler Jupiter (of disease and debt) will be in the 8th house, Aquarius (between 2 deg and 8 deg), but not afflicting nor being afflicted. At the same time, 8th house ruler transit Saturn (of death like experiences and obstructions in this case) is stationing at 19 deg Capricorn (7th house). It will afflict 7th, 9th, 1st and 4th houses of the USA chart. My take away from these configuration is that while there is not a likelihood of the 3rd wave of Wuhan Virus pandemic, there may likely be some negative experiences, including violence leading to injury and deaths of Americans in distant lands (7th house), at Colleges (9th house) and domestically across communities (1st and 4th houses).

Conclusion

When looking through a Jyotish lens I see potential for a mild wave (which may be seen as a continuance of the current wave (as of April 2020)) of the Wuhan Virus pandemic in USA until the end of June 2020. There is somewhat higher potential for a second wave in the Fall of 2020, with peak in December 2020, which may extend into February 2021. These broad predictions may be useful for many of you as you do your scenario planning of your specifics in your business and individual lives. Such an exercise may uncover ways in which to minimize loss and find ways of continuing to do business in a different and safe way.

I may post separately on what the economic scenarios look like for USA from a Jyotish lens in 2020-2021.

[i] Suggestion was made by the master astrologer who goes by the name of Cosmologer, whose mastery of Systems Approach to Mundane Vedic Astrology, especially as it applies to nation-states, is legendary among practicing astrologers. You can access his writings at http://cosmologer.blogspot.com/

 

[ii] See the Mundane Astrology site http://yournetastrologer.com/mundane_astrology.htm as propounded by the Late Professor V.K. Chaudhary and now being practiced by eminent astrologers Mr. Rajesh Chaudhary and Cosmologer.

[iii] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/three-waves.htm

 

[iv] http://cosmologer.blogspot.com/2007/12/samva-usa-chart.html

 

Wuhan Virus USA: Jyotish Model Prediction Update April 17th

Devi Waiting for Her Children (c) Jayant Kalawar 180929

The Devi Waiting For Her Children (c) Jayant Kalawar 2019

 

By Jayant Kalawar, April 17th 2020

Positive memes have started surfacing in USA, as seen in these news items on April 16th, 2020, which I predicted in early April 2020.

In my post of April 6th I had predicted the following:

From April 8th to April 25th, Mercury transits Pisces, the 9th house of good fortune and openness to direction from advanced research. We may likely see a different set of memes arise in this period. They are, however, likely to be over all weakly positive (and especially so up to August 14th): the memes in this period will likely begin giving information about how the pandemic is being mitigated and calling to action and getting back to work.

Mercury enters Aries on April 26th 2020. It will be able to manifest positive memes especially up to May 6th. Memes calling for action to get the economy moving may get stronger in this period.

Here are two news items that surfaced in this context on April 16th, which are aligned with the above predictions:

  1. Call to action and getting back to work

Trump unveils phased approach to reopening economy

https://apnews.com/420a38ec14101eab70e07be367ee6422

  1. Direction from advanced research

Early peek at data on Gilead coronavirus drug suggests patients are responding to treatment.

The potential of Systems Approach to Vedic Astrology to play a role in planning our lives has not been tapped. There is quite a bit of research that needs to be done to make this happen, to make the heuristics developed by ancient Rishis adapt to the 21st century to make them relevant and practical. One way is to incorporate the Jyotish factor into modeling, which is what I have done here and therefore test whether and how it helps us all to navigate uncertainty in life a little bit better.

Of course, the main question on everyone’s mind right now, as I write this on April 17th, is what direction Covid-19 epidemic take, in terms of new cases and new deaths. You will see my prediction in the linked post (at the top of this post) which speaks of leveling of new cases after August 18th and leveling of new deaths somewhere between April 25th and May 6th. A new planetary configuration opens up from May 5th on wards, as Mars moves into Aquarius and Venus slows down and stations itself in late Taurus. I hope to contemplate and write about that soon in a separate post.

Jyotish Model Perspective: Wuhan Virus Pandemic in USA 2020 – Updated April 15th 2020

Devi Kalaratri source Wikipedia 180808

The Destroyer of Ignorance and Confusion – Aum Namo KAlarAtreya NamAhA (Source: Wikipedia, Devi Kalratri, Sanghasri, Kalighat, Kolkata, 2010)

By Jayant Kalawar, posted April 15th 2020

I posted my Jyotish model projections of the current Wuhan Virus pandemic in USA on April 6th. These were the key summary projections:

  1. The memes in social media may begin to see some positive shoots after April 7th and a little more after April 14th, but we may have to wait until after April 25th for clarity on how and when people would be able to go back to work and school.
  2. The active Wuhan Virus cases in USA may likely peak between April 18th and 25th. Sharp declines may follow between April 25th and May 9th.
  3. Wuhan Virus related deaths in USA are likely to peak some time between April 25th and May 7th.

In this update I am posting graphics showing Jyotish Model projections for Active USA cases and total USA Deaths (first two graphics), followed by actuals up to April 13th (next two graphics). If you go back to my April 6th post and compare to what I have posted here, you will notice I have not tweaked my model projections at all. I am not looking to track levels / numbers of Active cases with my Jyotish model. What I am interested in tracking is how well this Jyotish based model is able to predict when the Active cases peak and when the declines start in Active Cases in USA. I notice a beginning of a slow down in the Active cases graph. Your constructive comments and suggestions are welcome on this post are welcome.

Current Cases and Total Recoveries to Date USA 200406

Jyotish Model Predicted Current Active Wuhan Virus Cases in USA March – May 2020

Jyotish Model Predicted Total Deaths 200406

Jyotish Model Predicted Total Wuhan Virus Deaths in USA March – May 2020

 

Actual Active Cases to April 13th 2020

Actual Active Wuhan Virus Cases USA to April 13th 2020

Actual Total Deaths To April 13th 2020

Actual Total Wuhan Virus Deaths in USA to April 13th 2020

The 2020 Memetic Pandemic in USA

Devi Cover for Outsider European Enlightenment Kindle 190506

WIth the Devi’s Blessings. Cover art by Jayant Kalawar 2018.

Most of us are already familiar with the genetic pandemic that is sweeping  through USA, at the time of this writing, in 2020. It is known variously as the Wuhan Virus, Covid – 19 and Corona Virus pandemic. I call it the Wuhan Virus RNA genetic pandemic, since it is driven by RNA, a basic genetic component of living cells. That way I can more clearly articulate the proposition that in parallel a memetic pandemic took place in USA in the February to April 2020 time frame. This memetic pandemic worked its way through the Global Social Mind that I began referring to in my previous post. The impact of this memetic pandemic may have been to temporarily amplify fears and cause confusion, and therefore lower the ability to effectively to respond to the genetic pandemic. From Jyotish perspective, the memetic pandemic is set to begin abating from April 7th 2020 on wards. And with that the Global Social Mind is likely to begin coming together to positively resolve the genetic pandemic.

Living in New Jersey I am currently experiencing (again at the time of this writing) the isolation and fears that arises from this Wuhan Virus pandemic. I know of people in my friends and family network who have been impacted from mild to critical to the ultimate price that this virus extracts. I write this analytical essay keeping those in mind. I hope I have nuanced it, so that it does not come across as cold and calculating. Hopefully the short term nature and order of magnitude lower numbers that this Jyotish based model projects comes true.

Viewing the 2020 USA Memetic Pandemic from the Jyotish Lens

On January 31st 2020, President Trump placed severe restrictions on airplane flights from China to USA. That was the beginning of USA memetic pandemic around the Wuhan Virus. It was the day that transit Mercury, which especially for USA governs analysis, communication, initiatives and short-term travel (Mercury thus ends up being a key significator of memes generated in USA), entered Aquarius, which happens to be the 8th House of death like experiences for USA according to SAMVA chart. This particular transit of Mercury through 30 degrees of Aquarius was longer than usual. Mercury went from 0 degrees Aquarius to almost 30 degrees, slowed down and came back to about 4 deg Aquarius and then trudged back to 30 deg by April 7th.  Mercury usually crosses a zodiac sign in 18 to 21 days. This time it stayed in Aquarius for 68 days[i]. Additionally, both natal Ketu and transit Ketu aspects were present in Aquarius at about 10 degrees and 16 degrees. Ketu gives isolation, distance and general material loss (and spiritual gain).

Thus, this transit of Mercury from January 31st to April 7th , manifested as memes of death like behavior, woven in with memes of isolation and distance. The Global Social Mind which has come into existence in the last 25 years, amplifies these memes and motivates individuals to according to the memes it propagates. We experienced the push towards social distancing and isolation after February 15th when Mercury began to slow down and retrace back from 20 deg Aquarius, in the shadow of natal Ketu. The Wuhan virus outbreak in Kirkland, Washington, had begun to unfold then and the first of the deaths in USA began to be counted.

From April 8th to April 25th, Mercury transits Pisces, the 9th house of good fortune and openness to direction from advanced research. We may likely see a different set of memes arise in this period. They are, however, likely to be over all weakly positive (and especially so up to August 14th): the memes in this period will likely begin giving information about how the pandemic is being mitigated and calling to action and getting back to work.

Mercury enters Aries on April 26th 2020. It will be able to manifest positive memes especially up to May 6th. Memes calling for action to get the economy moving may get stronger in this period. This may potentially effectively move the Global Social Mind out of the dark memetic pandemic, at least in the USA. May 8th on wards there are other Jyotish impacts seen from the political and economic frames that may not fully enable the positive memes trend to continue. We may talk about that in a later post.

Jyotish Perspective of Triggers for the RNA Pandemic in USA

In my continued attempts to make Jyotish a relevant tool in the modern world, I have used Jyotish based prediction as a driver of Covid-19 reproduction rate in US in the late March – early May time frame to forecast current cases, total deaths and total recoveries. I used actuals for March 21st as a starting point and then applied changing reproduction rates (using Excel spread sheet) as follows:

Jyotish Model Driving COVID 19 Reproduction Rate in USA March – May 2020 Using USA SAMVA CHART
Dates March 31st April 8th April 14th April 25th
Significant Astro Dates (Used as Drivers to change Reproduction Rate R in Table below) USA SAMVA tr Mars afflicted by tr Saturn Peak March 31st Gives Peak R=4.5) April 8th: tr Mars no longer afflicted. Tr 3rd L Mercury out of 8th H, but debilitated so only few openings for movement and communication opened up. Drives R down to 3.2 and then to 1.1) April 14th: Tr 2nd L Sun exalted in Aries bringing leadership and sense of well being to country. Drives R to 0.7. April 25th: Mercury moves into Aries. Movement, communication and innovation opens up. Drives R to 0.4 and lower in following weeks.

 

Following Charts present the Jyotish Model Forecasts and Actuals to Date (March 28th 2020)

Current Cases and Total Recoveries to Date USA 200406

Jyotish Model Predicted Current Wuhan Virus Cases

Jyotish Model Predicted Total Deaths 200406

Jyotish Model Predicted Total Deaths

Actual Total Cases 200406

Actual Total Cases

Actual Total Deaths 200406

Actual Total Deaths

 

 

I expect the numbers predicted will differ from actuals. My predictions are for total current cases net recoveries. Actuals are for total cases to date (not netted for recoveries). More important is when the actual cases and actual deaths peak and decelerate (and at what rate). So, what I would be looking for is whether the actuals begin to slope downwards as per prediction based on my Jyotish based model, between April 18th and April 25th and then slope downwards even further after between April 25th – May 2nd and accelerate downwards between May 2nd – May 9th. And whether total number of deaths stabilize around April 25th on wards. Lets see.

I use the Systems Approach To Vedic Astrology (SATVA) as propounded by Professor V. K. Chaudhry in the 1990s. Current SATVA practice is led by esteemed astrologer Mr. Rajesh K. Chaudhary. The USA chart that I refer to in this post was formulated after over a decade of detailed of historical research by Cosmologer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[i] I hasten to add, that this description of Mercury’s travel through Aquarius is from a Earth positional astronomy perspective i.e. this is how we see Mercury’s motion in the sky from the Earth. Helio (Sun) centric astronomy teaches us that is not actually happens in space. Jyotish uses sidereal positional astronomy, with positions of planets and stars as they are seen from a point on Earth to cast sky maps (charts) and then interpret them using heuristics developed over millennia of observations.

An Outsider Deconstructing European Enlightenment

Devi Cover for Outsider European Enlightenment Kindle 190506

WIth the Devi’s Blessings. Cover art by Jayant Kalawar 2018.

I recently published this essay on Amazon Kindle. Here is a brief summary:

From an outsider’s perspective, European Enlightenment was a brilliant social innovation, which emerged in the 17th century, as a response to the brutally destructive intra-religious wars in Europe. It led to the formation of national governments, financial markets and rapid growth of a certain kind of science and technology. However by the 21st century, that innovation, through its runaway success, has had unintended global consequences of ecocide, fratricide and suicide, particularly impacting those outside of the European sphere. This 60 page essay takes you briefly through the 3000 year history of monotheism in the West, before focusing on the 17th century and the path that has led to the current global systemic crises. The outsider, using the framework of his Devi traditions, offers a compass of hope, to navigate out of the global dystopian scenario charted by European Enlightenment, towards compassion, connection and immersion.

There are quite a few pages open to browse here:

An Outsider Deconstructing European Enlightenment

You may decide to download after browsing.

I am opening this page to comments and discussions. The comments posted on this page so far are quite insightful. You may want to browse through them as well. And please consider posting your comment here as well.