By Jayant Kalawar
The state assembly elections in India in November – December 2018 returned an anti-incumbency verdict, with BJP losing in Rajashthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh. The question came up whether this anti-incumbency momentum would be repeated in the May 2019 General Election.
So I took up my lens from Systems Approach to Vedic Astrology (SAMVA)[i] and began investigating using India’s Independence Chart (using 7:43 deg Taurus rising chart for 12 am August 15th 1947, Delhi).
I noticed that the current cycle of elections were occurring in the Jupiter Bhukti period (August 15th 2018 – December 15th 2019), which was preceded by Rahu Bhukti period (Feb 13th 2017 – August 15th 2018). So I set out investigating whether during similar Rahu Bhukti – Jupiter Bhukti periods there were anti-incumbent waves. Here are my notes from my investigation of the political events in India corresponding to five data points of Rahu Bhukti – Jupiter Bhukti periods since 1960:
- 1960-1965: India-China Border dispute escalated after India gives Dalai Lama asylum and India began its forward policy of having army posts along the Chinese border. In 1963 the Congress lost popularity following the defeat in the Indo-Chinese war of 1962.To revitalize the party, Kamraj proposed the Kamaraj Plan to Nehru that encouraged six Congress chief ministers (including himself) and six senior cabinet ministers to resign to take up party work.
- 1975-1980: Emergency Rule by Indira Gandhi and a highly unpopular family planning initiative by Sanjay Gandhi from June 25th 1975 to March 21st 1977. In the General Elections that followed, Congress Party and Indira Gandhi defeated, including losing her own seat.
- 1985- 1987: Congress Party with Rajiv Gandhi had a super majority of 411 out of 542 seats in Lok Sabha from the 1984 December general election. He proceeded to dilute the Shah Bano verdict by the Supreme Court of India giving Muslim women rights in divorce proceedings. This led to accusation of minority appeasement. In July 1987 Rajiv Gandhi’s party lost in assembly elections in Haryana in a humiliating manner, which came as a shock.
- 1996-2002: This period saw BJP coming to power at the Center for the first time, with A.B. Vajpayee as Prime Minister, winning enough seats in the 1999 General Election to rule through coalitions, which were unstable and caused uncertainty. Subsequently in mid-May 2001 BJP lost in 5 key state elections.
- 2010-2012: 2G Spectrum scandal and many other scandals became a central issue against the UPA government. In the March 2012 state elections Congress lost in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Goa.
Pattern Observed with the 5 data points above: Actions by a ruling party in a Rahu Bhukti period leads to anti-incumbency wave in the immediately following Jupiter Bhukti period.
Prediction for May 2019 General Election based on Observed Pattern:
The current ruling party (BJP) implemented two programs during the Rahu Bhukti period of February 13th 2017 to August 15th 2018: Demonetisation and GST. These may have impacted the masses in a negative way, generating an anti-incumbency wave. The effect of this wave may be expected in the subsequent Jupiter Bhukti period of August 15th 2018 to December 15th 2019. The initial impact of the current anti-incumbency wave is already seen in the losses in the state elections in November-December 2018. It is likely that the anti-incumbency wave will continue resulting in BJP losing its majority position in the Lok Sabha elections in May 2019. There is likely to be instability at the Center up to December 2019, perhaps due to coalition politics.
For those more adept in Vedic Astrology and interested in Indian political history of the last 60 years, I provide details below of my findings and analysis of 60 years of Indian political history, focused on specific Rahu-Jupiter Bhukti periods.
I begin with the first Rahu+Jupiter Bhukti period in the India Independence Chart in April 1960.
10th L Saturn Major Period Establishing Foundations for the Masses Ends in Loss of Standing in conflict with Neighbors (natal Saturn in 3rd, directly afflicted by 6th L Venus)
Rahu Sub-period 4/26/1960 – 3/3/1963 India-China Border dispute begins to escalate after India gives Dalai Lama asylum and begins forward policy of having army posts along the Chinese border.
The Sino-Indian War (Hindi: भारत-चीन युद्ध Bhārat-Chīn Yuddh), also known as the Sino-Indian Border Conflict (simplified Chinese: 中印边境战争; traditional Chinese: 中印邊境戰爭; pinyin: Zhōng-Yìn Biānjìng Zhànzhēng), was a war between China and India that occurred in 1962. A disputed Himalayan border was the main pretext for war, but other issues played a role. There had been a series of violent border incidents after the 1959 Tibetan uprising, when India had granted asylum to the Dalai Lama. India initiated a Forward Policy in which it placed outposts along the border, including several north of the McMahon Line, the eastern portion of the Line of Actual Control proclaimed by Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai in 1959.
Unable to reach political accommodation on disputed territory along the 3,225-kilometre-long Himalayan border, the Chinese launched simultaneous offensives in Ladakh and across the McMahon Line on 20 October 1962, coinciding with the Cuban Missile Crisis. Chinese troops advanced over Indian forces in both theatres, capturing Rezang La in Chushul in the western theatre, as well as Tawang in the eastern theatre. The war ended when China declared a ceasefire on 20 November 1962, and simultaneously announced its withdrawal to its claimed ‘line of actual control’.
Jupiter Sub: 3.3.63 – 9/14/65: Nehru era of establishing Indian Constitution (1950) and Indian States (1956) ends with Nehru’s death May 20th 1964. Indian National Congress begins to split into factions.
- Kamaraj became the president of the All India Congress Committee in 1963 during the last year of Nehru’s life. Prior to that, he had been the chief minister of Madras state for nine years. Kamraj had also been a member of “the syndicate”, a group of right wing leaders within Congress. In 1963 the Congress lost popularity following the defeat in the Indo-Chinese war of 1962.To revitalize the party, Kamraj proposed the Kamaraj Plan to Nehru that encouraged six Congress chief ministers (including himself) and six senior cabinet ministers to resign to take up party work. After Nehru’s death in May 1964, Kamaraj was widely credited as the “kingmaker” in Indian politics for ensuring the victory of Lal Bahadur Shastri over Morarji Desai as the successor of Nehru.
The split in Congress Party under Kamaraj Plan, in this Jupiter sub-period, began the move towards the ascendancy of Indira Gandhi in 1966. The incumbent Congress (Organization) led by Morarji Desai was effectively voted out.
1975-1980 Rahu+Jupiter Bhukti Period
This one occurred in 5th L Mercury Dasha Period Relating To Children Ends in Reaction to Anti-Children Actions (forced sterilizations as means to family planning, also general signification of Mercury, open communication )
Rahu Sub-period 3/13/75 – 9/29/77: Emergency Rule by Indira Gandhi and a highly unpopular family planning initiative by Sanjay Gandhi from June 25th 1975 to March 21st 1977.
How did the Emergency get mixed up with sterilization?
Indira Gandhi’s 20-Point Programme did not say a word about family planning. But Sanjay Gandhi’s Four-Point Programme not only had family planning as the first point but it became the only point which was ruthlessly implemented on a national scale. In Sanjay’s vocabulary, family planning meant only one method – sterilization.
Jupiter Sub-period 9/29/77 – 1/5/1980: Congress Party and Indira Gandhi defeated, including losing her own seat.
The structural factors allowed voters to express their grievances, notably their resentment of the emergency and its authoritarian and repressive policies. One grievance often mentioned was the ‘Nasbandi’ (vasectomy) campaign in rural areas. The middle class also emphasised on the curbing of freedom of speech throughout the country.
1985-1987 Rahu+Jupiter Bhukti Period
This occurred during Ketu Dasha Period of Loss and Transformation: Loss of Congress Party standing as the only National Party, Emergence of BJP claiming to represent traditional religious and spiritual interests
Rahu Sub-period 8/14/85 – 9/2/86: Rajiv Gandhi, with a super majority if 411 out of 542 seats in Lok Sabha from the 1984 December general election, proceeded to dilute the Shah Bano verdict by the Supreme Court of India giving Muslim women rights in divorce proceedings. This led to accusation of minority appeasement. Many say this was the turning point for beginning of rise of BJP as a National political party.
Jupiter Sub-period 9/2/86 – 8/9/87: In July 1987 Rajiv Gandhi’s party lost in assembly elections in Haryana in a humiliating manner, which came as a shock.
Haryana elections: Congress(I) humiliated, Devi Lal’s Lok Dal(B) wins
This simple act symbolised not only the ideological change that had swept Haryana, but also the dramatic reversal in the fortunes of the Congress(I) which, like its leaders’ photographs, had been dumped unceremoniously, by the voters of the northern state. It was the hardest knock yet for Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, weakened as he is by scandals of kickbacks from defence deals.
1996-2002 Rahu+Jupiter Bhukti Period
This occurred during 6th L Venus Dasha Period Time of Conflicts, Disputes and hence Instability with Multiple Coalition Governments
Rahu Sub-period 11/13/96 – 11/14/1999: Congress was in power through a coalition government. It attempted to control the government by withdrawing support for one Prime Minister (Deve Gowda) and having another (I.K. Gujral) in his place. Led to unstable governance and a mid-term general election was called in December 1997.
New Lok Sabha elected in 1998 makes for a first time BJP led coalition led by A.B. Vajpayee. It is also unstable and lasts only 13 months. Another General Election is called for on April 26th 1999.
General Election of September 1999 led to another BJP led coalition with A.B. Vajpayee as its PM, forming government.
Jupiter Sub-period 11/14/99 – 7/15/2002: Mid-May 2001 BJP loses in 5 key state elections.
2010-2012 Rahu+Bhukti Period
This occurred during 4th L Sun Dasha Period of Domestic Telecommunication Innovation Projects (natal Sun in 3rd, well placed, old in degrees) with Progress Marred by Scams
Rahu Sub: 11/8/2010 – 10/3/2011: 2G Spectrum scandal and many other scandals became a central issue against the UPA government.
According to some analysts, many corruption scandals including the 2G spectrum case, the coal mining scam, Adarsh Housing Society scam and the Commonwealth Games scam were major factors behind the Indian National Congress-led UPA government’s massive defeat in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. The severity of the corruption charges led to a loss of trust between Congress and the party. Time magazine listed the India’s Telecoms Scandal as one of the Top 10 abuses of power.
Jupiter Sub-period: 10/3/2011 – 7/21/2012: March 2012 elections Congress loses in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Goa.
2017-2019 Rahu+Jupiter Bhukti Period
This is currently (at time of writing) occurring in the 3rd L Moon Dasha Period of New Reform Initiatives (natal Moon well placed, weak in infancy) Badly Implemented
Rahu Sub-period 2/13/2017-8/15/2018: Demonetisation, though it was introduced in November, prior to February 2017, may have played a role in people in the non-organized sectors (some say there are up to 80% of the population) who operate in a cash economy, both in rural and urban India, in disenchanting and distancing them from the incumbent Government. If this aspect of how people who live day to day operating in cash economy is true, then their reaction may be similar to the 1977 reaction of people to forced sterilization.
Also, the GST implementation (July 2017) may have impacted small business and traders due to complexity of formulae as well as tardiness of implementation (source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goods_and_Services_Tax_(India)#Criticism )
Jupiter Sub-period 8/15/2018 – 12/15/2019: Incumbent BJP lost in 3 major state elections (Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh) in November – December 2018. At the time of this writing, the trend appears to be that BJP may be in a weaker position coming out of the 2019 May General Elections.
Based on the analysis in this post, one may come up with an actionable finding for the ruling party, such as:
How to make up for the pain that voters may see as having come directly from the Government due to demonetization and GST implementation? That is question that may be keeping leaders and strategists for the incumbent government awake now (if not, perhaps that is what they may want to focus on and worry about?). If they can crack that question, the incumbents may still have a chance in the upcoming general election in May 2019?
[i] I follow the Systems Approach to Mundane Vedic Astrology as propounded by the Late Professor V.K. Choudhry. See http://yournetastrologer.com/mundane_astrology.htm